WSMD? JA!, episode 3: It turns out that Independents are as just partisan in cognition as Democrats & Republicans after all!
This is the third episode in the insanely popular CCP series, "Wanna see more data? Just ask!," the game in which commentators compete for world-wide recognition and fame by proposing amazingly clever hypotheses that can be tested by re-analyzing data collected in one or another CCP study. For "WSMD?, JA!" rules and conditions (including the mandatory release from defamation claims), click here.
Okay, so I was all freaked out by the discovery that Independents are more reflective, in terms of the Cognitive Reflection Test scores, than partisans and wondering if this signified that somehow that Independents are these magical creatures who don't become even more vulnerable to ideologically motivated reasoning as their disposition to engage in analytical, System 2 reasoning becomes more pronounced (one of the findings of the latest CCP study).
Enticed by my promise to share the Nobel Prize in whatever 4 or 5 disciplines would surely award it to us for unravelling this cosmic mystery, Isabel Penraeth (aka "Gemeinshaft Girl) and NiV (aka "NiV") told me to just calm down and use some System 2 thinking. Did it ever occur to you, NiV asked with barely concealed exasperation, that the problem might be that Independents are members of a "cultural in-group" that evades the dopey 1-dimensional left-right measure used in the study? Yes, you fool, added Geminschaft Girl, have you even botherd to see whether Independents behave at all differently from Partisans (let's use that term for those who identify as either Republicans or Democrats) when their worldviews are measured with the "CCR group-grid scale?"
Doh! Of course, this is the right way to figure out if there's really any difference in how Independents and Partisans process information.
The basic hypothesis of the study was that ideologically motivated reasoning is a consequence of a kind of "identity-protective cognition" that reflects the stake people have in forming perceptions of risk and other policy-relevant facts consistent with the ones that predominate in important affinity groups.
This is actually the core idea behind cultural cognition generally. Usually, too -- as in always before now, really-- our studies have used "cultural worldview" scales, derived from the "group-grid framework of Mary Douglas, to measure the motivating group commitments that we hypothesized drive identity-protective cognition on climate change, gun control, nuclear power, the HPV vaccine, Rock 'n Roll vs. Country, & like issues.
We do that, I've explained, because we think the cultural worldview measures are better than left-right measures. They are more discerning of variations in the outlooks of ordinary, nonpartisan folk, and thus do a better job of locating the source and magnitude of cultural divisions on risk issues.
The reason I used right-left in the most recent study was that I wanted to maximize engagement with the researchers whose interesting ideas motivated me to conduct it. These included the Neo–Authoritarian Personality scholars, whose work is expertly synthesized in Chris Mooney's Republican Brain. They all use right-left measures, which, like I said, I don't think are as good as cultural-worldview ones but are (as I've explained before) plausibly viewed as alternative indicators of the same latent motivating predispositions.
So for crying out loud, why not just see how Independents compare with Partisans when instead of right-left ideology cultural worldviews are used as the predictor in the motivated-reasoning experiment described in the study?! Of course, I have the data on the subjects cultural worldviews; like the participants in all of our studies, they were part of a large, nationally diverse subject pool recruited to take part in cultural cognition studies generally.
As I'm sure you all remember vividly, the experiment tested whether subjects would show motivated reasoning in assessing evidence of the "validity" of Shane "No limit video poker world champion" Frederick's gold-standard "System 1 vs. System 2" Cognitive Reflection Test. Subjects were assigned to one of three conditions: (1) a control group, whose members were told simply that psychologists view CRT as valid test of open-mindedness and reflection; (2) a "skeptic-is-biased" condition, whose members were told in addition that "climate skeptics" tend to get lower CRT scores (i.e., are more closed-minded and unreflective); and (3) a "nonskeptic-is-biased" condition, whose members were told that "climate believers" get lower scores (i.e., are more closed-minded and unreflective).
As hypothesized, subjects polarized along ideological lines in patterns that reflected their disposition to fit their assessment of scientific informtion--here on a test that measures open-mindedness and reflection--to their ideological commitments. So relative to their counterparts in the control, more liberal, Democratic subjects were more likely to deem the CRT valid, and more conservative Republican ones to deem it invalid, in the "skeptic-is-biased" condition; these positions were flipped in the "nonskeptic-is-biased condition." Moreveover, this effect was magnified by subjects' scores on the CRT test--i.e., the more disposed they are to use analytical rather than heuristic-driven reasoning, the more prone subjects are to ideologically motivated reasoning.
Necessarily, though, Independents, didn't show such an effect (how could they, logically speaking? they aren't left or right to a meaningful degree) and they happened to score a bit higher than Partisans (Dems or Repubs) on CRT. Hmmmm....
But Independents, just like Democrats and Republicans, have cultural outlooks. So I reanalyzed the study data using the cultural cognitoin "Hierarchy-egaltiarian" and "Individualist-communitarian" worldview scales.
Because climate change is an issue that tends to divide Hierarch Individualists (HIs) and Egalitarian Communitarians (ECs), my principal hypotheses were (1) that HIs and ECs would display motivated reasoning effects equivalent to the ones of conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats, respectively, and (2) that this effect would increase as subjects CRT reflectiveness scores increased. The competiting additional hypotheses: (3a) that Independents wouldn't behave any differently in this respect than Partisans; and (3b) that Independents would be shown to be magic, supherhuman (possibly outerspace alien) beings who are immune to motivated cognition.
I had my money (a $10,000 bet made w/ Willard, a super rich guy who doesn't pay any income taxes) on 3a. Independents, like Democrats and Republicans, have cultural worldviews; why wouldn't they be motivated to protect their cultural identities just like everyone else?
Results? Hypotheses (1) and (2) were confirmed. When I just looked at subjects defined in terms of their worldviews, I observed the expected pattern of polarization. Indeed, HIs and ECs reacted in an even more forcefully polarizing manner to the experimental manipulation than did conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats, an effect that should come as no surprise because the culture measures are indeed better--i.e., more discerning--measures of the group dispositions that motivated biased processing of information on risk and other policy-relevant facts.
Next, I compared the size of this culturally motivated reasoning effect for Partisans and Independents, respectively. The regression model that added the appropriate variables for being an Independent did add explanatory power relative to the model that pooled Indepedents and Partisans. But the effect was associated almost entirely with the tendency of Independents to polarize more forcefully in the "skeptic-is-biased" condition. The same basic pattern--HIs and ECs polarizing in the expected ways, and magnification of that effect by higher CRT scores--obtained among both Partisans and Independents.
You can see that there are some small differences, ones that reflect the relationship I described between being an Independent and being assigned to the "skeptic-is-biased" condition. But I myself don't view these differences as particularly meaningful; when you start to slice & dice, you'll always see something, so if it wasn't something you were looking for on the basis of a sensible hypothesis, more than likely you are looking at noise.
So I say this is corroboration of hypothesis (3a): Independents are just as partisan in their assessment of information that threatens their cultural identities as political Partisans. I'm done being freaked out!
But hey, if you disagree, tell me! Come up with an interesting hypothesis about how Independents are "different" & I'll test it with our data, if I can, in another episode of WSMD? JA!