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Tuesday
May192015

"Politics & Science Webinar" Q&A: vaccine- & GM food-risk perceptions

The "politics & science" webinar the other day was a lot of fun. Unfortunately, there wasn't time to answer all the great questions that audience members had.

So here are some additional responses to some of the questions that were still in the queue:

Q1. How do you reconcile the fact that left-wing/educated individuals accept scientific evidence about climate change yet reject vaccinations?

Q2. Have you looked at GMOs or vaccines and seen similar results from the left that you've seen on the right?

 I put these two together b/c my answer to the 1st is based on the 2d.

click me!There’s no need to “reconcile the fact that left-wing/educated individuals accept scientific evidence about climate change yet reject vaccinations” b/c it’s not true!

Same for the claim that GM foods are somehow connected to a left-leaning political orientation--or a right-wing leaning one, for that matter.

The media & blogosophere grossly overstate the number of risk issues on which we see the sort of polarization that we do on climate change along with a number of other issues (e.g., fracking, nuclear power, HPV vaccine [at least at one time; not sure anymore]).

Consider these respones form a large, nationally represenative sample, surveyed last summer:

I call the survey item here the “industrial strength risk perception measure” (ISRPM).  There’s lots of research showing that responses to ISRPM will correlate super highly with respones that people give to more specific questions about the identified risk sources (e.g., “is the earth heating up?” or “are humans causing global temperatures to rise” in the case of the “Global warming” ISRPM) and even to behavior with respect to personal risk-taking (at least if the putative risk source is one they are familiar with). So it’s an economical way to look at variance. 

You can see that climate change, fracking, and guns are pretty unusual in generating partisan divisions (click for higher res).

Well, here’s childhood vaccines and GM foods:

Definitely not in the class of issues—the small, weird ones, really—that polarize people.

A couple of other things.

First, to put the very tiny influence of political orientations on vaccine risks (and even smaller one on GM foods) in perspective, consider this (from a CCP report on vaccine risk perceptions):

Anyone who sees how tiny these correlations are and still wants to say that the there is an meaningful connection between partisanship and either vaccine- or GM food-risk perceptions is making a ridiculous assertion.

Indeed, in my view, they are just piling on in an ugly, ignorant, illiberal form of status competition that degrades public science discourse

Second, GM food's ISRPM is higher than that of many other risk sources, it’s true.  But that’s consistent with noise: people are all over the map when they respond to the question, and so the average ends up around the middle.

In fact, there’s no meaningful public concern about GM food risks in the general population—for the simple reason that most people have no idea what GM foods are.  Serious public opinion surveys show this over & over. 

Nonserious ones ignore this & pretend that we can draw inferences from the fact that when people who don’t know what GM foods are are asked if they are worried about them, they say, “oh yes!”  They also say ridiculous things like that that they carefully check for GM ingridients when they shop at the supermarket, even though in fact there aren’t any general GM food abeling requirements in the US.

Some 80% of the foods in US supermarkets have GM ingridients. People don’t fear GM foods; they eat them, in prodigious amounts.

It’s worth trying to figure out both why so many people have the misimpression that both GM foods and vaccines are matters of significant concern for any meaningful segment of the US population.  The answer, I think, is a combination of bad reporting in the media and selective sampling on the part of those who are very interested in these issues & who immerse themselves in the internet enclaves where these issues are being actively debated.

There are serious dangers, moreover, from the exaggeration of the general concern over these risks and the gross misconceptions people have about the partisan character of them

Some sources to consider in that regard:

Cultural Cognition Project Lab. Vaccine Risk Perceptions and Ad Hoc Risk Communication: An Emprical Analysis. CCP Risk Studies Report No. 17

Kahan, D.M. A risky science communication environment for vaccines. Science 342, 53-54 (2013).

Kahan, D., Braman, D., Cohen, G., Gastil, J. & Slovic, P. Who fears the HPV vaccine, who doesn’t, and why? An experimental study of the mechanisms of cultural cognition. Law Human Behav 34, 501-516 (2010).

Q3. I'd like to ask both speakers about the need for science literacy.  How does increasing science literacy - that is, knowledge about the scientific process – serve to influence people’s beliefs about science issues?

Where the sorts of dynamics that generate polarization exist, greater science comprehension (measured in any variety of ways, including standard science literacy assessments, numeracy tests, and critical reasoning scales) magnifies polarization.  The most science comprehending members of the population are the most polarized on issues like climate chagne, fracking, guns, etc.

Consider:

Here I’ve plotted in relation to science comprehension (measured with a scale that includes basic science knowledge along with various critical reasoning dispositions) the ISRPM scores of individuals identified by political outlook.

As mentioned above, partisan polarization on risk issues is the exception, not the rule.

But where it exists, it gets worse as people become better at making sense of scientific evidence.

Why?

B/c now and again, for one reason or another, disputes that admit of scientific inquiry become entantled in antagonistic cultural meanings. When that happens, positions on them beceome badges of membership in and loyalty to cultural groups. 

At that point, individuals’ personal stake in protecting their status in their group wil exceed their personal stake in “getting the right answer.”  Accordingly, they will then use their intelligence to form and persist in the positions that signify their group membership.

The entanglement of group identity in risks and other facts that admit of scientific investigation is a kind of pollution in the science communication environment.  It disables the faculties that people normally use with great success to figure out what is known by science.

Improving science literacy won’t, unfortunately, clean up our science communciation environment.

On the contrary, we need to clean up our science communication environment so that we can get the full value of the science literacy that our citizens possess.

Some sources:

Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Dawson, E. & Slovic, P. Motivated Numeracy and Englightened Self Government. Cultural Cognition Project Working Paper No. 116  (2013).

Kahan, D.M. Ideology, Motivated Reasoning, and Cognitive Reflection. Judgment and Decision Making8, 407-424 (2013).

Kahan, D.M. “Ordinary Science Intelligence”: A Science Comprehension Measure for Use in the Study of Science Communication, with Notes on 'Belief in' Evolution and Climate Change. CCP Working Paper No. 112 (2014).

Kahan, D.M., Peters, E., Wittlin, M., Slovic, P., Ouellette, L.L., Braman, D. & Mandel, G. The polarizing impact of science literacy and numeracy on perceived climate change risks. Nature Climate Change 2, 732-735 (2012).

Kahan, D. Why we are poles apart on climate change. Nature 488, 255 (2012).

Monday
May182015

Want to represent Kentucky Farmer in Congress? Well then you better learn to keep track of which "climate changes" he "believes in" and which he "doesn't"!

A lot of people seem to think that members of Congress who “deny” climate change are stupid.

Obviously, I can’t vouch for the intelligence of every single one of them. But in fact, I think I can readily put my hands on some evidence that attests to the considerable mental dexterity of at least some.

In particular, the ones who represent Kentucky Farmer are pretty impressive. 

Kentucky Farmer, I’m sure you’ll recall, is one of the many citizens who both do and don’t believe in climate change.  Or more specifically, don't or do depending on whether they are doing something that is enabled by disbelieving or believing in it.

The main thing disbelieving enables them to do is enjoy a particular cultural identity. 

Expressing disbelief with genuine conviction and sincerity, and also with a caustic undertone of contempt for people with values different from his--for whom “belief” is also primarily expressive, much like an article of clothing or bumper sticker that evinces contempt for him—is a way for the Kentucky Farmer to be a member of a community defined by commitments to certain social norms.  Being "skeptical" is like carrying a gun: a way to evince male virtues like self-reliance and and honor, and to occupy male roles like provider and protector . . . .Or in his wife's case like being against legalized abortion, which demonstrates commitment to norms that confer status on women for mastering female roles like wife and mother.

But believing in climate change—honestly & truly—is a way for him to do something too: namely, be a successful farmer.

He knows, e.g., that it makes sense to engage in no-till farming to protect the robustness of the soil in his fields, the fertility of which will be subjected, he realizes, to relentless assault from drought and heat and that he should be shifting his crops from, say, wheat to corn and soybeans to adjust for changes in growing seasons.

He has purchased or is planning to purchase greater crop-failure insurance coverage and various other services to help protect himself from the escalating variance associated with climate change.

And he’s hoping, too, that scientists, whose work he has always relied on to help him to master his craft of extraction from nature, will come through for him again with technological innovations that enable him to keep doing what humans but no other animals always have done: defy Malthusian constraints on the progressive expansion of their number.

Whether he lives in Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas, Wisconsin, or wherever, keeping track of which “climate changes” Kentucky Farmer believes in and the ones he “doesn’t” can be a real challenge for his elected representatives!

Just ask poor Wisc. State Senator Tom Tiffany.  He managed to get himself in a heap of trouble recently by instigating a provision to get rid of two dozen scientists in the state’s Department of Natural Resources who have been studying the impact of global warming on the vulnerability of the state’s vegetation to pest infiltration, as well as the state’s trout stock, another critical element of its economy, mainly for tourists who like to Wisconsin to fish. 

Those scientists, Tiffany complained, shouldn’t be wasting their time studying climate change, a matter he had previously dismissed as a completely “theoretical” matter.

I’m sure this seemed like a great idea to Tiffany.  After all, the majority of his  rural Republican district “don’t believe in” human caused-climate change!  No doubt he expected a hearty round of applause.

Wrong! To his surprise, I’m sure, Tiffany has found himself on the hot seat since his role in the firing of the DNR scientists was discovered, and he’s been trying to get his ass off of it ever since.

Hey, he explained, “I’m only one out of 33 in the State Senate,” so don’t blame me.

Okay, okay, he conceded, “Climate change, climate variability, is happening, I mean, all you have to do is look at the climatic record. It clearly is.

But that “doesn’t mean that we should have these significant shifts in public policy without having proof that we are causing this,” he added.

Wrong answer, dude!

Wisconsin is in deep shit because of climate change and its Kentucky Farmers, including the ones who are part of the state’s forestry and tourism industry, know it.  Fire the scientists that can help them weather it—so to speak—and you’ll lose your friggin’ job!

Now consider how the pros—the ones good enough at politics to earn seats in Congress representing the Kentucky Farmer—handle things.

Global warming? Bull shit!, says Ok. Sen. Inhofe, hoisting a snowball aloft on the floor of the Senate in Feb. 2015. “God is still up there, and He promised to maintain the seasons and that cold and heat would never cease as long as the earth remains.”

I’m sure his Kentucky Farmer constituents in Oklahoma were chortling with glee!

But they aren’t when they think about the impact of global warming on their cattle industry.

Thank God, too, I guess, that the US Department of Agriculture has awarded scientists at the University of Oklahoma at Stillwater some $10 million in recent years to study how to help keep the cattle industry going as temperatures in the state start to soar.

“The ultimate goal is to develop beef cattle and production systems that are more readily adaptable to the negative effects of drought,” explained the principal investigator for the most recent $1 million grant, a faculty member in OSU’s Division of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources.

Is Inhofe or any other member of Oklahoma’s congressional delegation proposing budget cuts to stop Oklahoma university scientists from engaging in this foolishness?

Nope.

On the contrary, Rep. Frank Lucas, an OSU Stillwater graduate who represents the district in which that university is located, sponsored  the 2014 Agriculture Bill that funds the research initiative that has made the OSU-Stillwater grants!

Attaboy, Frank!, his constituents, exclaim appreciatively.  That will help us to deal with the horrible consequences of climate change!

But that’s the “climate change” they believe in—in order to be farmers.

There’s also the “climate change” they don’t believe in—in order to be individuals with a particular cultural identity.

Frank Lucas doesn’t believe in that “climate change”—or at least, as a major-league, professional politician knows better than to support legislation that evinces belief in it.

Those goddam idiots at NASA, he says. What they hell are they doing wasting tax payer dollars investigating something that my constituents don't believe in?!

click me ... click me...Frank, as co-chair of the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology will fix that problem!  Cut the funds for those silly NASA scientists who are modeling climate change.

Way to go, Frank!, his constituents say! Show that stupid Al Gore!

BTW, the chair of the House Committee on Space, Science, and Technology, Lamar Smith, R. Tex., keeps perfect track of the which "climate changes" his constituents do & don't believe in too.

Cut the funding authority that USDA uses to support scientific investigation of the effects of climate change on agricultural production in Texas? Are you out of your mind?!

See? Members of Congress like Smith, Lucas, and Inhofe are no dummies!

What do you think they’d recommend to a junior varsity pol like Tiffany to help him keep his constituents’ “climate changes”—the ones they don’t “believe in” and the ones they do—straight?

I’m not an expert, of course, but I’d try index cards.

Sunday
May172015

Two remarkably different Jewish intellectuals & their two very different formulations of the "Jewish Question"

Just finished Angus Burgin's masterful "The Great Persuasion: Reinventing Free Markets Since the Depression." Still plenty of time for another book to overtake it, but it is way out in front of my personal "best book of yr."

Among the many other gems is his discussion of Milton Friedman's "Capitalism and the Jews."

Friedman expresses perplexity over what he sees as the strong, persistent strain of anti-capitalism in Jewish intellectual culture.  He just doesn't get it -- b/c he is convinced that liberal market institutions & the cultural norms they propagate have done more than anything else to constrain persecution of Jews--by quieting the impulses of religious zealotry responsible for centuries of butchery & violence (Friedman would not have joined the historically illiterate chorus that condemned Obama for noting the parallels between Islamic Jihadism and the Christian Crusades).

Security and tolerance are underwritten by capitalism's historical redirection of human beings' attention-- away from the mesmerizing clarion of one or another brand of imperialist moral perfectionism and toward the self-indulgent benefits of free trade: don't cut off that those infidels' heads-- you might be able to sell them something, or buy something cool from them!

Burgin doesn't note the contrast but it's fascinating to juxtapose Friedman's essay (lecture; it has been transcribed & circulated since) w/ Marx's "On the Jewish Question."  In contrast to Friedman, Marx reacts dismissively toward the demands of 19th century Jews, supported w/ uneven degrees of commitment by European liberal parties, to remove barriers to full integration of Jews into emerging democratic political & market institutions.  

No "special pleading" was Marx's stern msg: if you want to be free, then "liberate humanity," not your particular identity group -- & from liberal market and political institutions, the acquisitive individualist foundations of which estrange human beings from their natural sociality (Marx's "On The Jewish Question" should definitely be read together with his essay "The German Ideology," another classic in the "young Marx" oeuvre).

So strikingly different!  

I'm sure someone has written on the two essays.  It's interesting, of course, that both were written by intellectuals who were estranged from their Jewish identities, while by no means assimilated to anything else (aside from their diametrically opposed systematizations of ideas about the relation of markets to human nature and collective life).

For my part, I think Friedman was right to see the benefits of liberal market institutions for Jews and for pretty much everyone else. This is simply the "doux commerce thesis," which A. Hirschman and S. Holmes develop brilliantly in The Passions and the Interests and The Secret History of Self-Interest, respectively (and which Pinker adapts/embroiders/elaborates in his more recent, wildly more popular Better Angels). 

But what most intrigues me is how the two could have such different views of Jewish attitudes toward liberal market institutions: Friedman that Jews were  misguidedly hostile; Marx that they (along w/ everyone else) were self-delusionally enamored w/ them....

I don't think the answer, btw, has anything to do with the different eras they lived in.  

On the contrary, I think their opposing "Jewish Questions" are still very much in conversation-- or noncoversation-- with respect to the stance that not only Jews but members of various other identity-defining affinity groups should adopt toward liberal market institutions.

Saturday
May162015

Science of Science Communication as "evidence based politics"--a fragment . . .

From something I'm working on . . .

Science communication and evidence-based politics

Evidence-based policymaking presupposes evidence-based politics (National Research Council 2012). From the abandonment of nuclear power construction in the 1980s to the backlash against universal HPV vaccination in the last decade; from persistent inaction on climate change to the continued reliance on ineffective law-enforcement policies for reducing gun homicides—the value of decision-relevance science has been squandered by the absence of scientifically informed strategies for enabling citizens to recognize what’s known by science (Kahan 2013). This proposal is aimed at helping to remedy this deficit in the practice of enlightened self-government.

References

Kahan, D.M. A Risky Science Communication Environment for Vaccines. Science 342, 53-54 (2013).

National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on the Use of Social Science Knowledge in Public Policy. Using science as evidence in public policy (National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., 2012).

 

Friday
May152015

Another country heard from: more data on impact of 'expert judgment' in insulating judges from popular information-processing biases

Here's a cool paper reporting results of study of French judges vs. members of public.  Like we did in the study we report in "Ideology" or "Situation Sense"? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment, Univ. Pa. L. Rev. (in Press), the authors used a theoretical framework that conceptualized their study as testing the resistance of expert judgment to influences known (and shown in the same study) to bias non-experts. 

Also very cool is that it used behavioral rather than experimental data. B/c no method of study is perfect, the only "gold standard" for research on human decisionmaking is convergent validity.  (This approach assumes, of course, that studies reflecting the diverse methods in question are themselves validly designed, which is a separate matter.) 

Thursday
May142015

The "judicial behavior" measurement problem: What does it *mean* to say that "ideology" explains judicial decisions? 

This is another excerpt from Tthe latest CCP paper, "Ideology" or "Situation Sense"? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment, Univ. Pa. L. Rev. (in Press). It presents what I consider to be the major methodological defect in observational--or correlational--studies that purport to find that "ideological" motivations explain variation in judicial decisions: the failure to specify a cogent theory of what counts as an "ideological" as oppoosed to a legal or jurisprudential motivation, and a resulting failure to specify what sorts of evidence would support an inference of "ideological" motivations.

A. Observational studies

Associated with the disciplines of political science and economics, studies that use observational methods make up the largest share of the literature on the impact of ideological motivations on judicial decisionmaking. Such studies use correlational analyses—in the form of multivariate regression models—that treat the “ideology” of individual judges as an “independent variable” the impact of which on case outcomes is assessed after partialing out or “controlling for” additional influences represented by other “independent variables.”  

There are different methods for measuring judges’ “ideologies,” including (in the case of federal judges) the party of the appointing President  and (in the case of Supreme Court Justices) the covariance of votes among judges who can be understood to be aligned along some unobserved or latent ideological continuum.  Such studies tend to find that “ideology” so measured explains a “statistically significant” increment of variance in judicial determinations. Studies looking at the decisions of federal courts of appeals, which assign cases to three-judge panels for determination, also find that the impact of ideology so measured can be either accentuated or muted depending on the ideological composition of judges on the particular panel.

Critics of these studies identify methodological problems that they believe constrain the strength of the inferences that can be drawn from them.  The most obvious of these is the sampling bias introduced by parties’ self-conscious selection of cases for litigation. . . . 

Another, more subtle, but equally serious problem for observational studies of judicial ideology is the classification of “case outcomes.” In order to measure the impact of a judge’s “ideology” on decisionmaking, it is necessary to determine which outcomes are consistent with that judge’s ideology and which ones are not. Scholars doing observational studies generally classify outcomes as “liberal” or “conservative” based on the type of case and the prevailing party: for example, decisions favoring the government in “criminal” cases are deemed “conservative” and those the defendant “liberal”; in labor law cases, outcomes are “conservative” if they favor “management,” and “liberal” if they favor unions, and so forth.  

The crudeness of this scheme not only injects noise into empirical analyses of case outcomes but also biases it toward overstated estimates of the impact of “ideology” on judicial decisionmaking.  It is a well known feature of the Anglo-American system of law that it frequently demands that judges resort to normative reasoning.  There is no way for highly general concepts such as “fraud,” “unreasonable seizure,” “unlawful restraint of trade,” “fair use,” “materiality,” “freedom of speech,” and the like to be made operative in particular cases without specifying what states of affairs those legal provisions should be trying to promote.  Under “common law” style of reasoning dominant in Anglo-American law,  the sorts of moral judgments that judges exercise to supply content to these types of concepts is not unconstrained; shared understandings of the general aim of the enacting legislature or other law promulgator, the appropriate deference to be afforded to previous elaborations of the content of the legal concept in question, and conformity to broader normative precepts that structure the law (“notice and opportunity to be heard,” “due process,” “like cases treated alike” etc.) limit the available interpretive options. But in ruling out many solutions, the sources of valid normative inspiration that judges can draw on often do not rule only one in.  

In this environment, it is perfectly commonplace for judges who have competing “jurisprudential” orientations to disagree on what normative theory should animate a particular legal provision. It is not a surprise, either, that in those instances the competing orientations that guide judges will be correlated with alternative political philosophies or orientations on the part of the judges in question.  Justice Douglas had a populist “economic decentralization” conception of “restraint of trade” for purposes of the Sherman Act; Professor and then Judge Robert Bork subscribed to an economic, “consumer welfare” alternative.  These positions undoubtedly cohered with their respective political “ideologies,” too, and likely did as well with the “ideologies” of judges who championed one versus the other understanding of how U.S. antitrust law should be structured. But those who understand how the law works—and the contribution that judges, using normative theories play, in imparting content to it—would not characterize this debate as reflecting extralegal “ideological” considerations as opposed to the perfectly ordinary, acceptable exercise of jurisprudential judgments.  Multivariate regression models are not necessary to ferret out the contribution that value-laden theories make to how judges decide these cases; judges openly admit that they are using such theories. Regardless of which President appointed these judges to the federal bench, no lawyer understands judges engaged in this sort of reasoning to be invoking “personal political preferences.”

An entirely different matter would have been presented, however, had Justice Douglas or Judge Bork proposed deciding an antitrust, labor law, free speech, criminal law or any other sort of case based on the religious affiliation of the litigants or on the contribution a particular outcome would have made to the electoral prospects of a candidate for President. The Sherman Act, the Wagner Act, the First Amendment, and even myriad criminal law statutes  all demand the use of the form of guided normative theorizing we are describing. But the bare desire to use legal outcomes in particular cases (or in large classes of them) to disadvantage those who subscribe to a disfavored view of the best life or to advance the cause of a particular political party is plainly outside the range of considerations that can validly be appealed to in the exercise of normative reasoning intrinsic to law. Whether in the form of regression coefficient correlations, law-enforcement wiretaps, or anonymously leaked emails, evidence that judges of particular ideologies were being influenced by such considerations would be a ground for intense concern.

There is a distinction, in sum, between resort to normative considerations that are internal to law and ones external to it. The former are licit, the latter illicit, from the perspective that lawyers and judges in the U.S. system of justice share of what counts as valid legal reasoning.

The “prevailing party” outcome-classification scheme used in observational studies of judicial ideology is blind to the distinction. As a result, such studies will count in their estimates of the influence of “ideology” perfectly mundane associations between the jurisprudential philosophies of judges deciding cases on the basis of normative considerations internal to law and the party of the Presidents who appointed them or the voting records of those judges and judges who feel likewise about the normative theories that inform labor law, free speech cases, criminal cases and the like.  

The correlations that these researchers report could also be capturing judges’ reliance on illicit political considerations, external to the law. But (critics point out) there is no way to know whether this is the case, or to what extent, given the indiscriminate coding of outcome variables that these studies employ.

Some candid adherents to the “ideology thesis”  have acknowledged this point.  But they have not supplied a response to what critics would identify as the significance of this concession. When observational-study proponents declare that they are finding that “ideology” accounts for judges’ decisions, they say they are measuring the extent to which those judges are not deciding cases on the basis of “law.” That is what gives this entire body of literature its currency—its “shock value.” But to the extent that the observational-study scholars are finding that judges who have different judicial philosophies will sometimes validly interpret the law to support different conclusions, then they are telling us something that already is clear— something, in fact, that the very judges whose behavior is being "explained" plainly say when they justify their decisions—and that gives no one any reason to be concerned about the quality of judicial decisionmaking.

Wednesday
May132015

Fun webinar event on politicization of science-- c'mon, sign up! 

I don't have anytime today to say anything -- interesting or not -- b/c I'm so busy preparing for this cool "webinar" on politicization of science.

Sign up-- you can ask really hard questions & try to stump the participants (or easy ones--those are even harder to get right).  Plus its free!

Tuesday
May122015

If you think local action focused on adaptation is not the path for promoting engagement with climate-change policymaking at the national level, you are wrong. So wrong.


 

 

Thursday
May072015

We are *all* Pakistani Drs/Kentucky Farmers, Part 2: Kant's perspective(s)

This is an excerpt from another bit of correspondence with a group of very talented and reflective scholars who are at the beginning of an important research program to explain "disbelief in" human evolution. In addition, because "we may [must] regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future," this post is also a companion to yesterday's, which responded to  Adam Laats' request for less exotic (or less exotic seeming) examples of people using cognitive dualism than furnished us by the Pakistani Dr & the Kentucky Farmer. No doubt it will be the progenitor of "tomorrow's" post too; but you know that will say more about me than it does about the "Big Bang...."

I agree of course that figuring out what people "know" about the rudiments of evolutionary science has to be part of any informative research program here.  But I understand your project to be how to "explain nonacceptance" of or "disbelief in" what is known.

So fine, go ahead and develop valid measures for assessing evolutionary science knowledge. But don't embark on the actual project until you have answered the question the unreflective disregard of which is exactly what has rendered previous “nonacceptance” research programs so utterly unsatifactorywhat is it exactly that is being explained?

Isn't the Pakistani Dr's (or the Kentucky Farmer's or Krista's) "cognitive dualism" just a special instance of the perspectival dualism that Kant understands to be integral to human reason?

In the Groundwork for the Metaphysics of Morals and in both the 1st and 2d Critiques, Kant distinguishes two “self” perspectives: the phenomonelogical one, in which which we regard ourselves and all other human beings, along with everything else in the universe, to be subjects to immutable and determinstic laws of nature; and the “noumenal” one, in which we regard ourselves (and all other human beings) as possessing an autonomous will that prescribes laws for itself independently of nature so conceived.  

No dummy, Kant obviously can see the "contradictory" stances on human autonomy embodied in the perspectives of our "phenomological" and "nouemenal" (not to be confused w/ the admittedly closely related "Neumenal") selves.

But he is not troubled by it.

The respective “beliefs” about human autonomy associated with the phenomonlogical and noumenal perspectives are, for him, built-in components of mental routines that enable the 2 things reasoning beings use their reason for: to acquire knowledge of how the world works; and to live a meaningful life within it.

Because there’s no contradiction between these reason-informed activities, there’s no practical—no experienced, no real -- contradiction between the sets of action-enabling mental states associated with  them.

Obviously, Kant's dualism has a very big point of contact with debates about "free will" & "determinism," and the coherence of "compatibilist" solutions, and whatnot.  

But as I read Kant, his dualism implies these debates are ill-founded. The participants in them are engaging the question whether human beings are subject to deterministic natural laws in a manner that abstracts from from what the answer allows reasoning people to do.

That feature of the "determinism-free will" debate renders it "metaphysical" -- not in the sense Kant had in mind but in the sense sense that logical positivist philosophers did when they tried to clear from the field of science entangling conceptualist underbrush that served no purpose except to trip people up as they tried to advance knowledge by ordered and systematic thinking.

I strongly suspect that those who have dedicated their scholarly energy to "solving" the "problem" of "why the presentation of evolution in class frequently does not achieve acceptance of the evolutionary theory" among students who display comprehension of it are mired in exactly that sort of thicket.

Both the Pakistani Dr and Krista "reject" human evolution in converging with other free, reasoning persons on a particular shared account of what makes life meaningful.  They then both turn around and use evolutionary science (including its applicability to human beings because it simply "doesn't work," they both agree, to exempt human speciation from evolutionary dynamics—just as it doesn't work to exempt human beings from natural necessity generally if one is doing science) when they use their reason to be members of science-trained professions, the practice of which is enabled by evolutionary science.

In behaving in this way, they are doing nothing different from what any scientist or any other human being does in adopting Kant's "phenomenological perspective" to know what science knows about the operation of objects in the world while adopting Kant's "nouemanal one" to live meaningful lives as persons who make judgments of value.  

Only a very remarkable, and disturbing, form of selective perception can explain why so many people find the cognitive dualism of the Pakistani Dr or Krista so peculiar and even offensive.  Their reaction suggests a widespread deficit in the form of civic education needed to equip people to  honor their duty as citizens of a liberal democracy (or as subjects in Kant's "Kingdom of Ends") to respect the choices that other free and reasoning individuals make about how to live.

Is it really surprising, then, that those who have committed themselves to "solving" the chimera of Krista's "nonacceptance problem" can't see the very real problem with a conception of science education that tries to change who people are rather than enlarge what they know?

 

Wednesday
May062015

We are *all* Pakistani Drs/Kentucky Farmers, Part 1: Manny's perspective(s)

Quite reasonably, Adam Laats at "I love you but you are going to Hell" asked me if I could come up with additional, less exotic examples of people using cognitive dualism than the Pakistani Dr & the Kentucky Farmer. Here's a start...

Krista's boyfriend, MannySo I was talking with Krista, the high school senior and aspiring veterinarian featured in Hermann's "cognitive apartheid" study, about how puzzling it is to me & everyone else I know that she could get a perfect score on her evolutionary-science exam and still not believe in human evolution. She told me I should go ask her boyfriend Manny for help because he was "really good at explaining stuff."

It turned out that Manny, like Krista, had “aced” the AP physics course at their high school.  

I thus asked Manny how he reconciled what he had learned about the “Big Bang” with his religious conviction that God created the universe and everything in it. 

He replied, “What the hell are you talking about, dude? I’m an atheist!”

“Oh, sorry,” I said, “I just assumed that if you were Krista’s boyfriend, you must be religious too. . . .”

“Well, that was a pretty stupid assumption,” he replied. “Sure, we have different opinions about religion but it’s not like people around here cut each other's heads off over disagreements like that,” he said, fiddling with his iPhone as he spoke.

“Not only do I believe everything I learned in the AP Physics course,”  Manny continued with a demonic grin, “but I also believe that the course explains everything in the universe, including this conversation.”

“Seriously?,” I asked.

“Yes, seriously,” he replied. “In fact, one of the questions on the AP Physics exam was, ‘We may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future—true or false?’ Pretty obvious the answer’s ‘true,’ don’t you agree?," he asked.

“Yes, I guess so,” I said.

“Of course you agree—you have no choice in the matter!,” he stated with a smirk.

“So I guess you are going to be a scientist when you grow up then?...,” I asked.

“Nope. A moral philosopher,” Manny answered.

A moral philosopher– how can that be?!,” I asked. “If human behavior, along with everything else, can be linked to the impact of natural laws acting on successive states of the universe all the way back to the Big Bang, isn’t it silly to sit around philosophizing about how we ought to live? What ‘choice in the matter’ do we have?”

“That’s the sort of argument that seems really really clever when you are in junior high,” he replied. “Obviously people make reasoned decisions about how to live all the time.”

“But aren’t you contradicting yourself?,” I asked.  “You said you believe ‘we may regard the present state of the universe as the effect of its past and the cause of its future’—and yet you also are now saying that humans reasonably form their own life plans . . . .”

“Yes, I’m saying both of those things, but if you think that’s a ‘contradiction,’ you really are dense,” Manny said. “What I believe about the impact of natural laws on human beings and everything else in the universe, on the one hand, and what I believe about the power of free and reasoning human beings to decide how to live, on the other, are entirely different things.

“I don’t get it,” I said.

“What sort of sorry ass excuse for an education did you receive?,” Manny asked. “Didn’t you ever read Kant’s Groundwork for the Metaphysic of Morals? Or how about either of his first two "Critiques"-- of Pure Reason & of Practical Reason?”

“Ummm … Sure, but remind me– it’s been a while — what did he say that’s relevant here?,” I asked.

Manny sighed. “Kant posits that that human rationality involves a fundamentally dualistic self-perspective: as a member of the ‘sensible world,’ we perceive our actions, like everything else, to be caused by external forces of nature; but as a member of the ‘intelligible world,’ we perceive our actions as the product of our autonomous or self-determining wills.”

“Oh, right,” I said.

“You sound like you don’t get it,” Manny sneered. “But if you want ’empirical proof,’ just look at how every scientist lives her life. Yes, she believes that ‘the present state of the universe is the effect of its past and the cause of its future’—at work, where that belief enables her to contribute to the advancement of scientific knowledge. Nor does she bother concocting some metaphysical 'humans are exempted' proviso as she's doing so, because obviously that doesn't work.” 

“But at home,” Manny continued, “that same scientist disbelieves human actions are caused by deterministic natural laws." "The belief that that human beings have the capacity to choose how to live is woven into the mosaic of desires, emotions, and moral evaluations that enables her to be a parent who takes pride in the accomplishments of her children; or to be a citizen who decides she should do something to fight the threat that global warming poses to her community or to humanity or whatever."

“Don’t you see,” Manny resumed after a pause, “we are all Pakistani Drs!  Actually, I know you don’t see that; perhaps that is something you’d like to study sometime. Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m supposed to meet Krista so we can watch the latest episode of Mythbusters.”

Boy, those teenagers--such "know-it-alls"!

Tuesday
May052015

Science of Science Communication 2.0, Session 11.2: Wilner questions "consensus messaging" pedagogy for climate-science education along with her own previous views on teaching students to "believe in," not just comprehend, evolution...

I was so foolish to think that Science of Science Communication 2.0 had reached the end or at least the summer intersession!  

"Science communication honeybadger" Tamar Wilner,  having only appeared to have lapsed into a state of permanent unconsciousness after chomping off the head of the "belief vs. knowledge" viper in teaching evolution, suddenly awoke and started in chewing again, this time on whether "consensus messaging" is an effective/appropriate form of climate-science education for secondary school students.... Yow--she's fearless! 

Her appetite was so voracious, moreover, that she ended up devouring at least part of her own previous (qualified) endorsement of teaching students to "believe in" evolution.

See for yourself! 

And add your own witty voice-over commentary below but only if you are willing to reciprocate the contribution she is making to the class's refletive engagement with complexity.

 

Monday
May042015

The law's "neutrality communication problem"

This is an excerpt from the latest CCP paper, "Ideology" or "Situation Sense"? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment, Univ. Pa. L. Rev. (in Press).

We have suggested that the results of this study furnish evidence relevant to assessing whether identity-protective cognition affects expert scientists. We now want to show how understanding the role of identity-protective cognition in conflicts over policy-relevant science can be used to highlight the practical significance of our study results for the administration of justice.

There is an obvious sense in which the results of this study can be understood as good news for the justice system. The perception that judges are “just politicians in robes” is, as we noted, commonplace. The popular view that judges decide cases on the basis of political or cultural commitment extrinsic to law is both understandable and distressing. Yet in an experiment designed to avoid methodological limitations associated with studies that have purported to corroborate this anxiety, we found evidence that judges of diverse cultural outlooks can be expected to converge on results in cases that predictably divide the public. Their job is to decide those sorts of cases neutrally, and our evidence supports the inference that they have both the capacity and disposition to carry it out.

That such a result defies public perceptions should not come as any sort of surprise. Numerous studies have found that members of the general public themselves can be expected to conform their assessments of evidence and their interpretation of rules to the stake they have in legal outcomes that affirm the status of their groups and their own standing within them. These studies, we have emphasized, are not a reliable basis for drawing inferences about the in-domain reasoning processes of judges. But the one sort of inference that they do support is that members of the public can be expected to perceive judges to be biased in cases the outcomes of which are invested with antagonistic cultural meanings even when the outcomes of those cases reflect neutral decisionmaking.

That conclusion is, in fact, the bad news associated with our study results: the reliable convergence of culturally diverse judges on genuinely neutral outcomes has no connection at all to how untrained members of the public perceive the neutrality of those judges’ decisions. Again, because citizens lack the elements of professional judgment—the “situation sense”—that lawyers and judges acquire through their training and experience, citizens don’t have the capacity to discern those aspects of the case and the governing legal rules pertinent to assessing the neutrality or validity of judicial resolutions of them. On the contrary, in precisely those cases in which public anxiety about the cultural neutrality of the law is likely to be highest, identity-protective cognition will predictably disable members of the public from using their usually reliable lay prototypes of valid decisionmaking to assess cases outcomes. In that circumstance, no matter how expertly and impartially judges decide, one or another segment of the public will be disposed to see judges’ decisions as “politically biased” whenever courts are called upon to resolve culturally fraught controversies.

This problem is exactly parallel to the one that scientists face when empirical issues on which they possess expertise becomes entangled in culturally contested meanings. Obviously, doing valid science does not in itself communicate the validity of scientific research: people lack the expertise to see validity for themselves; they must rely on cues and processes that help them to reliably recognize who knows what about what. The capacity of members of the public to interpret those cues is compromised when propositions of risk or fact become symbols of the status of competing cultural groups. In that sort of “polluted science communication environment,” just doing valid science—including the part of valid science that consists in communicating validity to other scientists—will do nothing to silence public confusion and agitation.

Fixing this science communication problem is the aim of a new science of science communication. This subdivision of decision science uses empirical methods to identify the various dynamics that enable people to recognize as valid scientific insights that they could never verify for themselves. It aims, too, to understand, empirically, how those processes can be disrupted, and how society can effectively preempt such disruptions and counteract them when strategies of prevention fail.

Exploiting the benefits of the science of science communication will demand appropriate adjustments to myriad institutional practices. The sorts of conscious interventions necessary to protect the science communication environment from contamination are not self-executing. An integral part of the science of science communication, then, is to identify programs of implementation that appropriately reconfigure the processes for science-informed policymaking, the norms of science-generating and -consuming professions, and the structure of university training of scientists and public-policymaking professionals.

The law has a similar communication problem. Doing and communicating neutral decisionmaking are as different from one another as doing and communicating valid science. Just as solving the science communication problem demands scientific knowledge and appropriate institutional reforms, so solving the law’s neutrality communication problem will require appropriate acquisition and use of empirical knowledge of a sort aimed at expanding understanding of how people come to recognize the neutrality of the law and what law should do to make its neutrality fully recognizable.

There is one critical difference, however, between the science communication problem and the neutrality communication problem. Unlike scientists, judges are expected both to make valid decisions and communicate the validity of their work to the public. It is widely recognized that the experience of liberal neutrality in law depends on the public’s confidence that the law is genuinely impartial. The practice of reason-giving reflected in judicial opinions is understood to be intrinsic to the rule of law precisely because public assurance of the law’s neutrality depends on their access to a reasoned account of the neutral, impartial grounds for courts’ decisions.

The legal profession is doing well, our study suggests, in equipping those of its number who serve as judges to be neutral decisionmakers. But the very ubiquity and persistence of conflict over whether judges are in fact deciding cases on neutral grounds is a testament to how little the profession knows, and how poorly equipped its members are, to communicate the neutrality of the law. That deficit in lawyers’ “situation sense” is itself a barrier to citizens’ enjoyment of the value that neutral judicial decisionmaking confers on them.

Thursday
Apr302015

Revisiting "cultural cognition as a conception of the cultural theory of risk"

I'm going to be giving a presentation at the 6th Annual Mary Douglas Seminar series at University College London next month.  I'm pretty psyched, b/c I've known about the series and always been really envious of the participants for their chance to exchange ideas with one another on the significance of Douglas's work for making sense of public conflict over risk and related topics.

I'll be presenting a paper-- which I'll post it in 2-3 weeks-- that extends/updates/qualifies an earlier one I did on relationship between "cultural cognition" &  Douglas & Wildavsky's cultural theory of risk.

Can ‘cultural cognition’ help solve CTR’s ‘mechanisms problem’?

My paper will address the contribution ‘cultural cognition’ makes to remedying a deficit in Cultural Theory relating to the psychological and behavioral mechanisms that connect cultural worldviews to individual risk perceptions. Indeed, ‘cultural cognition’ was self-consciously designed to forge the connection between the cultural and psychometric theories of risk that Douglas (1997) proposed in her essay ‘The Depoliticization of Risk.’ Prepared specifically for the conference, my paper will use this theme to animate a brief survey of ‘cultural cognition’ studies. It will also present new data suggesting how cultural cognition dynamics might be understood to support the so-called ‘mobility thesis’ (Rayner 1992), which sees institutions (or social contexts more generally) rather than individuals as the agents through which opposing worldviews operate to generate variance in risk perceptions. ‘Cultural cognition’ does not furnish a unique solution to Cultural Theory’s ‘mechanisms problem’; but without a solution, Cultural Theory, I will argue, cannot be expected to sustain a meaningful empirical research program for investigating societal conflict over risk.

Best thing: Steve Rayner will be my commentator-- maybe I'll just cede all my time to him so I don't mistake of talking too much & depriving myself & others of any of the benefit of hearing what he has to say.

 

 

Wednesday
Apr292015

*Look* at my data: Graphic data postcards from " 'Ideology' or 'Situation Sense' "

This post collects a bunch of graphic presentations of data from the latest CCP paper “Ideology” or “Situation Sense”? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment.

Graphic presentation of data is the common carrier of reason in empirical studies.  It’s what makes it possible for any curious, reflective person to critically engage the study findings independently of their facility with statistics. 

In my opinion, scholars who rely on statistical analyses that are not accessible to all curious, reflective people are engaged in a species of intimidation, not communication.  There’s a very high likelihood, too, that they themselves don’t really get what they are doing.

1. Showing the data.  Pretty much always the first step in competent data reporting is to show the reader the “raw data.” 

If someone has done a valid experiment to test some hypothesis, then he or she should be able to show readers—just by holding the data out in front of their eyes—that the experiment either supports or undermines that hypothesis. 

Here's an example involving scatterplot w/ lowess lines superimposed--click it!The pont of applying a statistical model is to discipline and extend the infernce one is drawing from results one can actually see; it isn’t to magically cause to appear out of a mass of tangled observations a result that can’t otherwise be seen.

So how to “show the raw data”?  This is not as straightforward as it sounds!

If one does an experiment, e.g., in which one posits that there will be an interaction between predictors (say, “cognitive reflection” and “political outlooks,” or "religiosity" & "science comprehension") that varies in relation to experimental treatments, one has to figure out a way to display the observations that makes that pattern (or the lack thereof) visible to the naked eye. That can be darn tricky!  Maybe some sort of appropriately color-coded scatter plot will work, or, if there are too may observations or too many points of contrast to make that feasible, lowess regression lines will Too many observations & predictors here to do scatterplot, but the lowess lines furnish honest testimony on what the raw data look like. Click it!help.

“Showing the data” wasn’t very hard, though, in “Ideology” or “Situation Sense.”  

The rival hypotheses in that paper had to do with the relative responsiveness of different subject types—judges, lawyers, law students, and members of the public—to experimental manipulations designed to trigger identity-protective reasoning in two statutory interpretation problems. As discussed previously, the manipulations altered the identities in a manner expected to generate this form of bias among egalitarian communitarians and hierarchical individualists in one case, and among egalitarian individualists and hierarchical communitarians in the other.

So the simple thing to do was just to show for each subject type (judge, lawyer, student, and member of the public) the impact of the experimental assignment on the proportion of subjects with the relevant worldview (determined by their score on the two worldview scales) who construed the statute to have been violated: 

These results make it apparent that the experimental assignment affected the interpretations of members of the public of opposing worldviews, particularly in the “Littering” problem (which involved whether leaving reusable water containers in a desert constituted “discarding . . . deberis” in a wildlife preserve).

Judges and lawyers, in contrast, were not affected to a meaningful degree (or in the patterns suggestive of identity-protective cognition) in either the “Littering” problem or the “Disclosure” problem (the latter of which involved a statutory ambiguity relating to release of law enforcement investigatory information to a member of the public).

Law students were somewhere in between.

These results were consistent with the hypothesis that the sort of “professional judgment” lawyers and judges acquire through training and experience (and which law students possess in an incipient form) protect them from the impact of identity-protective cogntion in cases that predictably polarize culturally diverse members of the public.

2. Simulating the statistical model. The apparent corroboration of that hypothesis was probed more systamatically with a multivariate regression model designed to assess the respective impacts of subject-type, cultural worldview, and experimental assignment on the subjects’ responses.

One way in which the model enhances our insight relative to inspection of the raw data is by measuring the impact of cultural worldviews as continuous variables. So in addition to helping us overcome the anxiety that what looks like signal is just noise, the model measures the impact of the cultural worldviews in a manner more sensitive to the varying intensity of individuals’ commitments than does simply assigning individuals to “groups” based on their scores in relation to the means on the two scales.

go ahead click on this. Almost certainly a reasearcher *should* give you this; but if that's all he or she gives you, demand your $ backThe model is a monster, particularly given the number of cross-product interaction terms needed to estimate the effects of experimetnal assignment and worldview separately for each subject type.

Someone who understands multivariate regression analysis can, with patience and persistence, make sense of the coefficient and standard error for each predictor.

But even that person will not be able to assess from the face of the regression output what all this information signifies in relation to the study hypotheses.

Accordingly, a researcher who proclaims that his or her hypothesis is “confirmed” (or worse, “proven” etc.) by the signs and “statistical significance” of the regression model coeffricients (even one that is much simpler than this) is engaged in an embarrasing display of handwaiving (& someone who does that after reporting a pile of fit statistics of the sort associated with an ANOVA—ones that don’t convey anything about effect size --is not even getting that close to relating something of value).

The necessary information has to be extracted from the model by using it to genrate outcomes that reflect those combinations of predictor values relevant to the study hypotheses.

One way to do this is by monte carlo simulation.  In effect, a monte carlo simulation uses the specified predictor values to estimate the outcome a zillion times (1000 times actually is sufficient), adding to each estimate a random increment calibrated to the measurement error of the relevant predictors.

In the end, one gets a bell-curved distribution of values that indicates the relative probability of outcomes associated with the specified combination of predictors. The most likely outcome is the mean one, at the peak of the curve; values progressively larger or smaller are progressively less likely. One can, if one wants, figure out the 0.95 CI by identifying the values at the 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles.

But the best thing about using monte carlo simulations (particularly for logistic regression, which estimates the probability of one outcome of a dichotomous variable) is that the resulting probability distributions can be graphically displayed in a manner that enables any reflective, curious person to see exactly what the model has to say about the inference one is using it to assess (King, Tomz & Wittenberg 2000).

Here, e.g., it can be seen, from how spaced out the probability distributions are, how unlikely it is that an egalitarian communitarian member of the public is to agree with a hierarchical individualist one in a particular version of the “Littering” problem—or with a member of the public who shares his or her values but who was assigned to the other version.

Likewise, it can be seen from how bunched together the probability distributions are just how low the probability is that judges of opposing worldviews are to disagree. Same for lawyers.

Again, students are in the middle.

Here are some e.g.'s of using MC simulation to estimate effect size of experimental manipulation and difference of it across subject types. Click it--c'mon-- you know you can't resist!One can also use the model to estimate the size of the differences in the impact of the experimental manipulation on various types of subjects, or the average impact on one or another subject across the two problems.

This is not only 10^9 times more informative for any curious, reasoning being—one who actually would like to think for him or herself than be told what to think by someone who probably doesn’t really know what he or she is doing—than being shown a regression output with a bunch of asterisks; it’s 10^6 more informative than being told “the effect is x%, p < 0.05,” and 10^3 more than being told “p%, ± q% at 0.95” (Gelman, Pasaria & Dodhia 2002).

3. Likelihood ratios.  But in my view, the very best thing we did in in “Ideology” or “Situation Sense” was graphically display the likelihood ratios for opposing hypotheses relating to the effect of identity-protective cogntion on particular subject types.

I’ve already posted an excerpt from the paper that addresses what we were doing here.

But in sum, a likelihood ratio specifies how much more consistent a piece of evidence is with one hypothesis than another and is the factor in proportion to which one revises one’s assessment of the probability of that hypothesis under Bayes’s Theorem.

As such, it characterizes the weight of a piece of evidence—something that a p-value, contary to an obscenely prevalent misconception, does not do, no matter how friggin’ small it is (Good 1995).

Where one is doing an experiment or otherwise making an empirical estimate subject to measurement error, the likelihood ratio just is the relative probabilities of observing the experimental result under the relevant hypotheses (Goodman 1999a, 1999b, 2005).

One can visualize that by juxtaposing the probability distributions associated with the relevant hypotheses—and comparing how like the observed experimental result is under the respective distributions.

If we assume the distributions have the standard error (which determines the slope, basically, of the bell curve) as the experimental result, the ratio of the heights of the observed result on the two distributions is the likelihood ratio associated with the experiment for the rival hypotheses (Morey 2014).

In my view, researchers ought to convey the likelihood ratio or its conceptual equivalent. By doing that, they make it plain for the reader exactly what an empirical finding (if based on valid methods) truly is: not conclusive “proof” of any particular proposition, but evidence of some degree of probative force to be added, along with all the other evidence one has and ever will get one's hands on, to the scale one is using to weigh the relative strength of competing hypotheses.

The menagerie of fit statistics (p-values, chi-squares, omnibus F-statistics, etc) associated with conventional null hypothesis testing obscure that—indeed, necessarily fail to convey the information one would need to treat empirical data that way.

But even if a researcher is considerate and reflective enough to use a form of statistical analysis that yields the weight of the evidence, there is still the task of making that information comprehensible to the curious, reflective reader who is not trained in statistics.

Graphic display is the way to do that.

So, do you get it?

If not, and you are carrying through on your end of the bargain to apply your reason here (if, understandably, the discussion of the monte carlo simultions is too compact for you to fully grasp here, then go to the relevant discussion of them in the paper; for more on the logic of likelihood ratios and the graphic presentation of them, go back to the previous post; read all this closely, & think things through; you can’t learn anything if you don’t make the effort to teach yourself), then the inaccessibility of my statistics is my problem, not yours.

Tell me and I’ll try even harder.

References

Gelman, A., Pasarica, C. & Dodhia, R. Let's Practice What We Preach: Turning Tables into Graphs. Am Stat 56, 121-130 (2002).

Good, I.J. Weight of evidence: A brief survey. in Bayesian statistics 2: Proceedings of the Second Valencia International Meeting (ed. J.M. Bernardo, M.H. DeGroot, D.V. Lindley & A.F.M. Smith) 249-270 (Elsevier, North-Holland, 1985).

Goodman, S.N. Introduction to Bayesian methods I: measuring the strength of evidence. Clin Trials 2, 282 - 290 (2005).

Goodman, S.N. Towards Evidence-Based Medical Statistics. 1: The P Value Fallacy. Ann Int Med 130, 995 - 1004 (1999a).

Goodman, S.N. Toward evidence-based medical statistics. 2: The Bayes factor. Annals of internal medicine 130, 1005-1013 (1999b).

Kahan, D., Hoffman, D., Evans, D., Lucci, E., Devins, N., Cheng, K. “Ideology” or “Situation Sense”? An Experimental Investigation of Motivated Reasoning and Professional Judgment. Univ. Pa. L. Rev. (in press).

King, G., Tomz, M. & Wittenberg., J. Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. Am. J. Pol. Sci 44, 347-361 (2000).

Morey, R. Bayes factor t-tests, part 1. Bayes Factor Blog. (2014).

Tuesday
Apr282015

The making of a Pakistani Veterinarian in Kentucky: cognitive apartheid vs. cognitive dualism 

Krista is a high school senior who lives in a Southern U.S. state. As one might guess, the vast majority of her classmates identify themselves as religious and regularly attend church.

She excels in the study of science. She is one of a handful of students in her school who is enrolled in an Advanced Placement biology course. She also volunteers as a “peer tutor” for students in a basic science course that covers the origin of the universe and the natural history of living organisms on earth.

Her goal is to become a veterinarian.

But she "rejects" evolution as contrary to her faith: God made “man” in “his own image”; to believe “that apes and humans have a common ancestor,” she states, “would be wrong.”

Krista was one of the subjects interviewed in the qualitative component of a study conducted by Ronald Hermann (2012), a researcher interested in the attitudes of students who learn evolutionary science but don’t “believe in” or “accept it.” 

Hermann selected Krista for the interview, in fact, because she obtained a near-perfect score on an evolutionary-science test.  

The test was the principal element of the quantitative component of Hermann’s study.  His results in this respect corroborated what numerous previous studies have established: that there is no correlation between students’ “beliefs” about evolution and their comprehension of concepts such as natural selection, random mutation, and genetic variance.

Hermann’s motivating hypothesis was that students in Krista’s situation would display a form of intellectual resistance dubbed “cognitive apartheid” (Cobern 1996).

The “cognitive apartheid” thesis is an alternative to another position—“cognitive assimilation” let’s call it—that imagines that teaching non-believing students evolutionary science will “change their minds” about the role of divine agency in the creation of our species.

According to the “cognitive apartheid” view, religious students consciously and effortfully segregate evolutionary-science insights. They reliably summon them from some walled off mental “compartment” to pass their examinations but otherwise block integration of them into their mental lives and ultimately expel them altogether upon completion of their educations (Cobern 1996).

This account arguably fit the perspective of one of the students featured in the qualitative component of Hermann’s study.

“The science stuff we learn about evolution and stuff like that all the time,” explained Aidan, a star athlete with a 4.0 grade point average, “I understand it, but I definitely don’t believe in it.” “I just block it out and do it because, I mean, otherwise I fail or something like that, and I’m not going to sacrifice that.” 

But “cognitive apartheid” clearly didn’t capture the complexity of Krista’s thinking.

To be sure, she had elected, very self-consciously, to persist in her state of “disbelief” as a matter of religious conviction.

She recounted, for example,  her abortive attempt to reconcile evolutionary science with her faith by positing the applicability of evolution to animals but not human beings.  On reflection, she concluded that approach just “doesn’t work”—either for making sense of evolution or for preserving her “relationship with God” (“or whatever,” she adds; she is an honest-to-god teenager).

But at the same time, it was clear there was nothing about Krista’s adoption of this stance that entailed quarantining evolutionary science in some “exam use only” mental chamber or barring integration of it into her life goals generally.

Her willingness to tutor less advanced students, for example, hardly evinced the begrudging, “under protest” mindset that the “cognitive apartheid” model envisions.

Like Aidan, Krista did explain—in terms that showed she regarded the point as stunningly obvious—that she saw learning evolutionary science as essential to academic success: “For the AP bio test . . . you can’t write on there, God created humans and all the things cause they’ll just be, like, zero [score].”

But asked whether she therefore planned to put evolutionary science out of her mind once she had finished the course, her reply revealed that she viewed the answer to that question to be stunningly obvious, too: No, of course not, “cause I like animals” too much to “forget” evolution, and besides “I like learning about that stuff anyway.”

Both the “cognitive assimilation” and “cognitive apartheid” accounts envision "beliefs" as stand-alone mental objects that reflect simple “on/off,” “accept/reject” states in relation to states of affairs.

This picture makes little sense, though, as a psychological matter.

People's minds are not proposition registries.  

Rather they comprise multi-faceted ensembles of mental states—desires, emotions, moral appraisals, and the like—distinctly suited for enabling people to do things.  When embedded in such complexes, beliefs cannot be identified with reference solely to their objects; they can be individuated only in relation to the actions they enable  (cf. Hetherington 2011).

Krista’s life plan involves two goals: to be a person who has a particular religious identity; and to be a certain type of science-trained professional—a veterinarian.

A state of “disbelief in” evolution will be integral to the mental routines that enable her to achieve the former end: treating it as “wrong” to view apes and humans as having descended from a common ancestor will help her to maintain her “relationship with God” and, no doubt, a  larger community of people who share a sense of the best way to live.

At the same time, a “belief” that animals evolved—that it “makes sense” to view “cats and dogs” as having “share[d] a common ancestor at some point,” and that it “doesn’t work” to think of human beings as being uniquely exempted from the same dynamics of speciation—will reside in the cluster of intentional states that enable her to be a science-trained professional. 

In other words, like Everhart & Hameed's Pakistani Dr (2013), she will, disbelieve evolution “at home,” and believe it “at work.”  But she will experience these states as “entirely different things” because they cannot in fact be individuated independently of the action-enabling aggregations of mental states in which they are embedded.  

The "cognitive apartheid" framework misleadingly suggests that the "knowledge" of evolution that a "nonbelieving" student like Krista acquires reflects a less genuine and lasting engagement than does the form of "belief" to which the "cognitive assimilation" view aspires.  

The truth is that most of Krista's classmates who profess “belief” in evolution will indeed quickly forget what they learned about the modern synthesis in high school--assuming they learned anything to begin with.  Nor will they ever use that "belief" to do anything meaningful in their lives.

Krista, in contrast, will reliably use her retained comprehension of evolutionary science as necessary to be a good veterinarian.

Just as important, her genuine comprehension of the theory of evolution will inform her understanding of herself as a member of a profession whose expertise originates in the distinctive, scientific way of knowing that generated that theory, including its account of the natural history of human beings.

Kentucky Farmer sure is excited about the development of this climate-change resistant chicken!She'll carry on a conversation in the morning with the scholarly researcher about her disbelief in evolution while making use of evolutionary insights to determine whether to tolerate or suppress the fever of the researcher's ailing dog  (LeGrand & Brown 2002).

Later in the day, she'll nod agreeably as Kentucky Farmer explains why there's no evidence for climate change as she treats his climate-change resilient genetically engineered chickens.

And because she really does love animals and  “like[s] learning about that stuff anyway,” she'll prop herself up comfortably in her study to read Bolhuis & Girladeau's The Behavior of Animals: Mechanisms, Function and Evolution after returning home from church on Sunday.

This cognitive dualist stance toward evolution will not involve any contradiction in Krista's “beliefs” so long as the practical ends enabled by the mental routines in which those beliefs reside do not themselves interfere with one another.

They obviously don't have to. But they might.

To her immense disappointment, Krista might discover that she can’t both enjoy a religious identity in which denying evolution expresses her “relationship with God or whatever” and a professional one in which affirmation of evolution expresses her “love of animals” and her pleasure in “learning about stuff like” the “big bang” and natural selection.

If so, she tells the interviewer, she’ll “be upset.”

The source of this upsetting incompatibility, however, will not be any sort of logical or psychological contradiction.

Rather it will be an imperfection in the constitution of an aspiring Liberal Republic of Science that hasn’t yet acquired the knowledge, created the institutions, and cultivated the public mores necessary to quiet the forms of cultural status competition that force diverse citizens to choose between using their reason to know what is known by science and using it to express their defining moral commitments (Elsdon-Baker 2015; Hameed 2015; Kahan 2015; Kahan in press).

References

Bolhuis, J.J. & Giraldeau, L.-A. The behavior of animals: mechanisms, function, and evolution (Blackwell Malden MA, 2005).

Cobern, W.W. Worldview theory and conceptual change in science education. Science Education 80, 579-610 (1996).

Elsdon-Baker, F. Creating creationists: The influence of ‘issues framing’ on our understanding of public perceptions of clash narratives between evolutionary science and belief. Public Understanding of Science  (2015).

Everhart, D. & Hameed, S. Muslims and evolution: a study of Pakistani physicians in the United States. Evo Education Outreach 6, 1-8 (2013).

Hameed, S. Making sense of Islamic creationism in Europe. Public Understanding of Science 24, 388-399 (2015).


Hermann, R.S. Cognitive apartheid: On the manner in which high school students understand evolution without Believing in evolution. Evo Edu Outreach 5, 619-628 (2012).

Hetherington, S.C. How to know : a practicalist conception of knowledge (J. Wiley, Chichester, West Sussex, U.K. ; Malden, MA, 2011).

Kahan, D.M. Climate-Science Communication and the Measurement Problem. Advances in Political Psychology 36, 1-43 (2015).

Kahan, D.M. What is the "science of science communication?" J. Sci. Comm (in press).

LeGrand, E.K. & Brown, C.C. Darwinian medicine: applications of evolutionary biology for veterinarians. The Canadian Veterinary Journal 43, 556-559 (2002).

Monday
Apr272015

Special feature: Insights on S. Ct. prediction models from someone who knows what he is talking about

I did a couple of posts commenting (one here and another here) on the performance of computer models designed to predict the outcomes of Supreme Court cases. Taking the bait, someone who actually knows something about this issue felt obliged to step in and enlighten me, along with the 14 billion regular readers of this blog, 12 billion of whom rely exclusively on the site for information on all subjects.  So read and learn!  I've already updated my own views on the subject based on the analysis and will have something to say "tomorrow."

A Response: Computer Programs and Predicting Supreme Court Decisions

Justin Wedeking, University of Kentucky

In Professor Kahan’s recent post (hereafter Kahan) he tackles two Supreme Court forecasting models.  For clarity I’ll use the same labels. The first model – “Lexy” or “Lexy1” - refers to the forecasting challenge from the 2002 Term that pitted “machine” against legal experts (Martin, Quinn, Ruger, and Kim 2004; Ruger et al. 2004).  The second model – “Lexy2”- is the recent (and still ongoing) effort by Katz, Bommarito and Blackman (2014).[1]  The goal of this “reply” post is to offer some thoughts on Kahan’s critiques as well as on these forecasting models that will hopefully reshape how we think about Court forecasts. 

There appears to be two main issues in Kahan’s post.  First, Kahan’s primary concern appears to be that neither attempt at forecasting true, “out of sample” cases does “very well.” A related, and close secondary concern is that this failure to do well is problematic for various scholars’ claims made with respect to what he calls “the ideology thesis”- which can be thought of as the claim that judges’ decisions are driven more by their own ideology (or personal policy preferences) than “the law.”  In perceiving a lack of evidence for “the ideology thesis” this is potential damning evidence for scholars who believe that ideology is a major factor in Supreme Court decision making.  Namely, it suggests that we know relatively little about decision making.  

With respect to Kahan’s first point, I do not have any strong disagreements but rather three points that suggest more caution is needed before forming conclusions about forecasting models.  The rest of the post is divided into three sections:

  • In section one, I identify and discuss different criteria for determining when we have a successful prediction;
  • In section two, I take a closer look at what is being predicted (i.e., the dependent variable) and offer a few thoughts;
  • In the third section, I close with some thoughts about the models and machine learning algorithms used in Lexy1 and Lexy2.

Regarding Kahan’s argument on the ideology thesis, I will save my thoughts for a later date.

Keep reading (or else you will forever be denied enlightenment!)

Thursday
Apr232015

Univ. of Colorado deja vu! (sort of): c'mon down & hear about what the "science of science communication" has to say about the "science communication problem"

I'm on my way back to Boulder. But am going to refrain, during the trip, from writing a blog (was working on one on graphic data presentation) so that I don't miss any connecting flights this time.

Anyway, if in area, come to tomorrow's lecture at Univ. of Colorado. This one won't be on professional judgment & motivated reasoning (as last one was) but on science of science communication.  Haven't figured out exactly what I'll talk about, but I have a feeling Pakistani Dr and Kentuck Farmer will insist on making an appearance.

If not in area, then sign up for webcast.

Also, I discovered last time that they serve these great brownies at the post-lecture reception! 

Wednesday
Apr222015

A question to be answered at the very beginning of an "acceptance of evolution" research program

From correspondence between me and a group of very accomplished and reflective researchers who are not examining "acceptance" of human evolution:

What does it actually mean for someone to "believe in" evolution or "accept" evolution independently of how that person answers the belief/acceptance question as it is typically posed in an opinion poll or (invalid) "science literacy" quiz?

In general, is it sensible-- philosophically or psychologically-- to characterize as being the "same type of mental phenonomon" (1) an intentional state that reflects assent to or affirmation of some factual proposition that has no connection to any activity other than exactly that -- a disposition to express assent or affirmation to a survey or quiz item; and (2) an intentional state that reflects assent to or affirmation of some factual proposition that enables some independent, goal-focused activity?

E.g., right now I "believe" or "accept" that I'm sitting in a chair in front of my computer. That belief is bundled in w/ a bunch of intentional states that enable me to correspond with you.  

At the same time, if I check some registry in my mind, I can confirm I "believe"  that "Columbus sailed to America in 1492."  But that "belief" isn't enabling me to do anything; I never use it to anything, in fact.  

I'm sure there's some meaning in the proposition "Columbus sailed to America in 1492" & some meaning in the proposition "I believe Columbus sailed to American in 1492."  But I think it is facile to say that the intentional state that characterizes my assent to that proposition is the "same kind" of intentional state that characterizes my assent to the proposition that I'm sitting in a chair right now.

If those are "different kinds" of intentional states, then which of those two or which third one are you interested in studying when you try to explain "nonacceptance" of evolution?  

If the intentional state you are interested in studying, moreover, isn't one that enables someone to do things (scientific research on the natural history of humans, practice certain types of medicine, educate science students, transmit scientific information etc) that can be done properly only with an "action-enabling" sort of assent in evolution-- why exactly do you want to explain that?

I'm not saying there can be no worthwhile answer to that last question -- just that, by hypothesis, the answer can't be that you are trying to explain variance in any sort of intentional state necessary to do anything that depends on "accepting" the best available evidence of the natural history of human beings.

Would it be bothersome to discover that the form of intentional state of "acceptance" that is measured by the "46% believe..."opinion poll finding is one that has nothing to do with enabling anything? Or anything other than conveying that one has the sort of cultural identity enabled by answering a survey  or "science literacy" quiz item in a particular way by persons who either never do anything that depends on using the best evidence of the natural history of human beings or who do assent to or believe in evolution when they are doing those things?

I'm pretty sure most scholars who conceive of  "nonacceptance of evolution" as a "problem" to be "solved" never think about these things.  I think that is itself a phenomenon that it would be interesting to study!  

But in any case, I am pretty sure it is not possible to chart a reliable course for a research program here w/o having satisfactory answers to these questions.

 

Tuesday
Apr212015

Science of Science Communication 2.0, Session 14: science documentaries!!!!

this is the end, my only friend(s): the last session of  "Science of Science Communication 2.0" In this session, we examine science documentarieis. Reading list here, & study/discussion questions below.  

Obviously, if you have contributions to make to previous sessions -- including the last one on science journalism or one before that on climate-science teaching-- the on-line sessions are still "ongoing."

But enlighten us, please, on this topic & others!

Monday
Apr202015

"Cognitive dualism" research program: a fragment ...

From something that collaborators and I are working on . . . .

We propose a multi-stage research program to investigate "cognitive dualism." This dynamic is marked by simultaneous states of apparent belief and disbelief of empirically derived facts. Conspicuous examples include scientists or doctors who reject evolution yet use evolutionary science in their research or professional decision-making, and farmers who dismiss evidence of climate change while using it to guide their commercial activities. Dominant psychological accounts attribute cognitive dualism to one or another reasoning deficit such as dissonance avoidance. Our project, in contrast, builds on work that links cognitive dualism to rational information processing. People use their reason for a plurality of ends enabled by distinct clusters of intentional states (emotions, desires, moral appraisals, and the like). The opposing beliefs characteristic of cognitive dualism, we surmise, exist only within these clusters; where the ends that they enable—such as belonging to a cultural community and occupying a professional role—are practically compatible, the characterization of the beliefs as “contradictory” reflects a psychologically arbitrary criterion of identity. The proposed program will test this hypothesis in relation to rival accounts of cognitive dualism and identify prescriptions for communicating science geared to accommodating rather than antagonizing this dynamic.