Key Insight
In the wake of Hurricane Sandy, Kahan examines the science communication challenges of attributing specific extreme weather events to climate change.
The question of whether any specific extreme weather event is "caused by" climate change is scientifically complex in ways that resist simple yes-or-no answers. Climate science can speak to changes in the probability distribution of extreme events, but it cannot straightforwardly attribute any particular storm to anthropogenic climate change.
Climate science speaks in probabilities over distributions , not causes of specific events. Communicating this accurately without feeding cultural polarization requires framing that neither overclaims causation nor understates the systematic relationship between warming and extreme weather risk.
The cultural cognition lens adds another layer. For individuals with hierarchical individualist worldviews, attributing Hurricane Sandy to climate change activates identity-protective responses as with any climate communication. The practical implication is that science communicators should be precise about what climate science does and does not support — creating conditions where accurate information has the best possible chance of being received on its merits.