Key Insight
In the last week or so, I’ve done somewhere between 2 and 406 blog posts on vaccine risk perceptions (I am indeed bored beyond description; I feel obliged to reciprocate, though, the admirable efforts of others who are trying to shield public discourse from the harm associated with fact-free assertions in this area). The upshot is that, contrary to the ... Read more
In the last week or so, I’ve done somewhere between 2 and 406 blog posts on vaccine risk perceptions (I am indeed bored beyond description; I feel obliged to reciprocate, though, the admirable efforts of others who are trying to shield public discourse from the harm associated with fact-free assertions in this area).
The upshot is that, contrary to the empirically uniformed and reckless blathering of “news” reporters and commentators (not all reporters or commentators are engaged in this behavior!), there is no meaningful public conflict over vaccine safety .
Not only have U.S. vaccination rates held steady at over 90%–the public health target—for all recommended childhood immunizations for over a decade.
But there is also overwhelming consensus in the general population, and within every recognizable political and cultural subsegment of it , that vaccines are safe and make a vital contribution to public health.
But these are characterizations of public risk perceptions .
Someone could— a commentator responding to one of my earlier posts did —reasonably ask about whether consensus on vaccine safety translates into consensus in favor of mandatory vaccination laws.
All U.S. states have such laws, requiring vaccination for mumps, measles, and rubella, along with various other childhood diseases, as a condition of school enrollment. All have so-called “medical exemptions,” for children who have a condition that would make vaccination unsafe, and most “religious” and some “moral” exemptions as well.
Can we say that the same state of consensus exists on this public health regulatory regime?
I’ll show you some data in a sec.
But because this post exceeds what the 14 billion regular readers of this blog know is my usually strictly enforced limit of 250 words, I’ll start with this helpful and succinct summary of my own interpretation of them:
1. Yes , the same consensus supports the current state of the law on mandatory vaccination in the U.S.
2. However, pursuing legislation to change the status quo—either by eliminating religious or moral exemptions or by eliminating mandatory vaccination laws —risks polarizing the public along familiar political/cultural lines.
3. Launching childhood vaccines into the reason-eviscerating maelstrom of cultural status conflict that now characterizes issues like climate change, gun control, and the HPV vaccine would itself put this important aspect of our public health system in serious jeopardy. Accordingly, a nyone who is considering initiating a campaign to change existing mandatory vaccination laws should (if they care about public health as opposed to making money by being employed to organize such a campaign; marketing and like consulting firms have a huge conflict of interest here) very carefully weigh the risk of that outcome against whatever benefits they might be hoping for in pursuing this course.
1. Members of the nationally representative sample that participated in the CCP Vaccine Risk Perceptions and Ad Hoc Risk Communication study were asked what they thought of mandatory vaccination policies.
They responded to a series of questions, which are described in full in the Report,, after first being supplied information (also described there) that was materially identical to the information I supplied above about how those policies work and about the varying forms of exemptions that states permit. The questions were varied randomly in order.
By an overwhelming margin, the survey participants indicated that they favor existing laws .
Specifically, 75% (± 5% at a 0.95 level of confidence) indicated agreed that they “ support leaving existing laws on childhood vaccinations as they are.”
What’s more, this was by far the dominant response across political lines:
The responses to this “let it be” item reflect exactly the same pattern that characterizes the general public’s responses to the study’s vaccine risk-perception items.
Indeed, I myself do not see the response to this item as measuring anything different from what the risk-benefit items measure .