Weekend update: The distracting, counterproductive "97% consensus" debate grinds on - Cultural Cognition of Health

I don’t want to go back there but since 10’s of millions of people get all their news exclusively from this blog (oh, btw, there was a royal baby, everyone, in case any of you care) I felt that I ought to note that controversy continues to attend the Cook et al. study that, “97%” of climate scientists agree that human activity is contributing to climate change.

Studies making materially identical findings have been appearing at regular intervals for the better part of a decade. Every time, they are widely heralded; indeed, the media have been saturated with claims that there is “scientific consensus” on climate change since at least 2006, when Al Gore made that message the centerpiece of a $300-million effort to build public support for policies to reduce carbon emissions in the U.S.

But it is demonstrably the case (I’m talking real-world evidence here) that the regular issuance of these studies, and the steady drum beat of “climate skeptics are ignoring scientific consensus!” that accompany them, have had no—zero, zilch—net effect on professions of public “belief” in human-caused climate change in the U.S.

On the contrary, there’s good reason to believe that the self-righteous and contemptuous tone with which the “scientific consensus” point is typically advanced (“assault on reason,” “the debate is over” etc.) deepens polarization.  That’s because “scientific consensus,” when used as a rhetorical bludgeon, predictably excites reciprocally contemptuous and recriminatory responses by those who are being beaten about the head and neck with it.

Such a mode of discourse doesn’t help the public to figure out what scientists believe. But it makes it as clear as day to them that climate change is an “us-vs.-them” cultural conflict , in which those who stray from the position that dominates in their group will be stigmatized as traitors within their communities.

This is not a condition conducive to enlightened self-government.

Nevertheless, the authors of the most recent study announced (in a press release issued by the lead author’s university) that “when people understand that scientists agree on global warming, they’re more likely support politics that take action on it,” a conclusion from which the authors inferred that “making the results of our paper widely-known is an important step toward closing the consensus gap and increasing public support for meaningful climate change.”

Unsurprisingly, the study has in the months since its publication supplied a focal target for climate skeptics, who have challenged the methods the authors employ.

It’s silly to imagine that ordinary members of the public can be made familiar with results of particular studies like this.

But it’s very predictable that they will get wind of continuing controversy over “what scientists believe” so long as advocates keep engaging in impassioned, bitter, acrimonious debates about the validity of studies like this one.

That’s too bad because, again, the best evidence on why the public remains divided on climate change is the surfeit of cues that the issue is one that culturally divides people.  Those cues motivate members of the public to reject any evidence of “scientific consensus” that suggests it is contrary to the position that predominates in their group. Under these circumstances, one can keep telling people that there is scientific consensus on issues of undeniable practical significance, and a substantial proportion of them just won’t believe what one is saying.

The debate over the latest “97%” paper multiplies the stock of cues that climate change is an issue that defines people as members of opposing cultural groups. It thus deepens the wellsprings of motivation that they have to engage evidence in a way that reinforces what they already believe. The recklessness  that the authors displayed in fanning the flames of unreason that fuels this dynamic is what motivated me to express dismay over the new study.

But look: Matters like these are admittedly complex and open to reasonable disagreement. I could be wrong, and I welcome evidence & reasoned argument that would give me reason to revise my views. In the best spirit of scholarly conversation, the lead author of the latest “97%” study, John Cook, penned a very perceptive, engaging, and gracious response –and I urge people to take a look at it & decide for themselves if my reaction was well-founded.

Mike Hulme, a climate scientist who is famous for his own conjectures about public conflict over climate change has apparently added his voice to the chorus of critics.

I say apparently because the comments attributed to Hulme appear in a short on-line comment on a blog post that described an interview of the UK Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change. I assume Hulme must be the actual author of the comment because no one seems to be challenging that and he hasn’t disavowed it.

Anyway, in the comment, Hulme (assuming its him!) acidly states:

Needless to say, the comment—because it comes from a figure of significant stature among proponents of aggressive policy engagement with the risks posed by climate change—has lifted the frenzy surrounding the latest “97%” study to new heights (most noticeably in dueling twitter posts, a form of exchange more suited for playground-style taunting than serious discussion).

First, what a sad spectacle.  Honestly, it’s hard for me to conceive of an issue that could be further removed from the important questions here—ones involving what the best empirical evidence reveals about climate change and about the pathologies that make public debate impervious to the same—than whether the latest “97%” study is “sound.”

Second, I think Hulme’s frustration, while probably well-founded, is not as well articulated as it should be.  What exactly does he mean, e.g., when he says “public understanding of the climate issue has moved on”?  The statement admits of myriad interpretations, many of which would be clearly false (such as that polarization in the U.S., e.g., has abated).

Of course, it’s not reasonable to expect perfect clarity or cogency in 5-sentence blog comment. Hulme has written a very thoughtful essay in which he presents an admirably clear and engaging case against trying to buy public consensus in the currency of appeals to the authority of “scientific consensus.” His argument is founded on the manifestly true point that science’s way of knowing consists neither in nose counting nor appeals to authority–and to proceed as if that weren’t so demeans science and makes the source of the argument look like a fool.