Against "consensus messaging" . . . - Cultural Cognition of Health

This is more or less what I remember saying in my “opening statement” in the University of Bristol “debate” with Steve Lewandowsky over the utility of “consensus messaging.” Obviously, I don’t remember exactly what I said b/c Steve knocked me unconscious with a lightening-quick 1-6-3-2 (i.e., Jab-Right uppercut-Left hook-rt-hand) combination. But the exchange was fruitful, especially after we abandoned the pretense of being “opposed” to one another and entered into conversation about what we know, what we don’t, and what sorts of empirical observations might help us all to learn more.

I want to start with what I am not against.

I’m not against the proposition that there is a scientific consensus that human activity is causing climate change. That to me is the plain inference to be drawn from the concurrence of expert sources such as U.S. National Academy of Sciences, the Royal Society, and the IPCC.

I am also by no means against communicating scientific consensus on climate change. Indeed, both Steve and I have done studies that find that when there is cultural polarization over a societal risk, both sides always agree that scientific consensus should inform public policy.

What I am against is the proposition that the way to dispel polarization over global warming in the U.S. is to continue a decade’s long “social marketing campaign”—one on which literally hundreds of millions of dollars have already been spent—that features the claim that “97% [or 98% or 100% etc] of scientists accept human caused climate change.”

I am against this “communication strategy”–

1. Misunderstands the problem . The most logical place to start is with what members of the public actually think climate scientists believe about the causes and consequences of climate change.

About 75% of the individuals whose political outlooks are “liberal” (meaning to the “left” of the mean on a political outlook scale that aggregates their responses to items on partisan identification and liberal-conservative ideology) are able to correctly identify “carbon dioxide” as the “gas . . . most scientists believe causes temperatures in the atmosphere to rise.

That’s very close to the same percentage of “liberals” who agree that human activity is causing climate change.

But if you think that that’s a causal relationship, think again: about 75% of “conservatives” (individuals with political outlooks to the “right” of the mean on the same scale) know that scientists believe CO2 emissions increase atmospheric temperatures, too.  Yet only 25% of them say they “believe in” human-caused climate change.

The vast majority of liberals and conservatives, despite being polarized on whether global warming is occurring, also have largely the same impression of what climate scientists’ view of the risks that global warming poses.

Indeed, by a substantial majorities, members of the public on both the left and right agree that climate scientists attribute all manner of risk to global warming that in fact no climate scientists attribute to it.

Contrary to what the vast majority of “liberal” and “conservative” members of the public think, climate scientists do not believe that climate change will increase the incidence of skin cancer.

Contrary to what the vast majority of “liberal” and “conservative” members of the public think, climate scientists do not believe sea levels will rise if the north pole ice cap melts (unlike the south pole ice cap, which sits atop a land mass, the north pole “ice cap” is already floating in the sea, a point that various “climate science literacy” guides issued by scientific bodies like NASA and NOAA emphasize ).

And contrary to what the vast majority of “liberal” and “conservative” members of the public think, climate scientists do not believe that “the increase of atmospheric carbon dioxide associated with the burning of fossil fuels will reduce photosynthesis by plants.”

They haven’t quite gotten the details straight, it’s true.

But both “liberals” and “conservatives” have “gotten the memo” that scientists think human activity is causing climate change and that we are in deep shit as a result.

So why should we expect that telling them what they already know will dispel the controversy reflected in persisting poll results showing that they are polarized on global warming?

I know what you are thinking: maybe climate-consensus messaging would work better if the “message” actually helped educate people on climate change science.

Well, I can give you some relevant data on that, too.